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VoteScot
Scottish Parliament Election • 7 May 2026

Results & accuracy

All 73 constituencies and 8 regions declared. Last updated 09/05/2026, 05:53:18

Results vs forecast

Each row: actual share and seats compared with the polling average (10 polls) and the VoteScot pre-election forecast (constituency only).

Vote share
%
Seats
N
SNP
38.2
36.8
58
58
+0
Labour
16.4
18.4
17
3
+14
Reform
15.8
17.7
17
2
+15
Conservative
11.8
11.5
12
2
+10
Lib Dem
11.4
11.2
10
5
+5
Green
2.3
2.1
15
3
+12
Actual Polling avg / pre-election forecast 129 of 129 seats declared ยท 65 for majority

VoteScot's per-seat hit rate

How often the pre-election projection picked the actual winner, across 73 declared constituency seats.

82.2%
60 of 73
safe
77%
10/13
competitive
92%
47/51
marginal
100%
1/1
toss-up
25%
2/8

Mean absolute error on top-three party shares: 6.3 percentage points.

Pollster accuracy (13 entries)

Mean absolute error in percentage points (lower is better). Top bar = MAE; bottom bar = RMSE.

Constituency vote

1
More in Common
2.10
2.61
n=7
2
Find Out Now
3.05
3.60
n=10
3
Lord Ashcroft Polls
3.32
4.26
n=1
4
Norstat
3.72
4.58
n=14
5
JL Partners
3.82
4.28
n=1
6
Ipsos
3.85
4.97
n=10
7
Survation
4.30
5.34
n=27
8
YouGov
4.67
6.00
n=24
9
Panelbase
5.19
6.30
n=12
10
Opinium
5.98
6.77
n=3
11
BMG
5.99
6.34
n=1
12
Redfield & Wilton
6.22
8.27
n=16
13
Savanta
6.87
8.01
n=16
What do MAE and RMSE mean?

MAE is the average gap, in percentage points, between predicted and actual party shares.

RMSE punishes big errors more heavily than small ones, so a pollster with one giant miss scores worse on RMSE than on MAE.

MRP seat forecasts vs actual (7)

MRPs are the only public forecasts that give per-seat predictions. Total seat error sums |predicted โˆ’ actual| across all parties.

Rank Pollster Client Total error Per-party MAE
1 Survation N/A 7 1.00
2 YouGov The Times 14 2.00
3 More in Common N/A 18 2.57
4 Electoral Calculus / FindOutNow The National 18 2.57
5 JL Partners The Telegraph 22 3.14
6 Stonehaven N/A 24 3.43
7 YouGov N/A 24 3.43

Forecast misses (13)

Where the seats VoteScot forecast incorrectly ended up. Left column = predicted winner; right column = actual winner; ribbon thickness = number of seats.

SNP โ†’ Lib Dem: 3 seats SNP โ†’ Conservative: 2 seats SNP โ†’ Labour: 1 seat SNP โ†’ Green: 1 seat Reform โ†’ SNP: 2 seats Green โ†’ SNP: 2 seats Lib Dem โ†’ SNP: 1 seat Labour โ†’ SNP: 1 seat SNP 7 Reform 2 Green 2 Lib Dem 1 Labour 1 SNP 6 Lib Dem 3 Conservative 2 Labour 1 Green 1
Forecast Actual
List of seats